No black boxes.

How it works

How Swindlr judges a trade, where its numbers come from, and how each one was checked against real leagues.

4,698

real accepted dynasty trades it’s tuned on

99.9%

of games scored within half a point of Sleeper

131

finished leagues its playoff odds were checked on

7,335

winning FAAB bids behind its waiver prices

Two answers

Every trade gets two.

First, what it does to your starting lineup this week, in points, using your league's exact lineup and scoring and leaving out players who are hurt or on bye. Second, what it does to your long-term value, as a percent.

Your league’s points

Scored your way.

Swindlr scores every player's games with your league's own settings: points per catch, passing touchdowns, tight end bonuses and more. Checked against Sleeper's own numbers, it matches to within half a point 99.9% of the time.

Value above replacement

Four benchwarmers never beat one star.

A player is worth the points he adds over what a team could start in his place, counted over the seasons that matter: this season in redraft, several seasons in dynasty, weighted by whether you're contending or rebuilding. A player who wouldn't start for anyone adds almost nothing.

Age by position

Nobody beats the clock, but some last longer.

Each position has its own age curve: running backs fade soonest, quarterbacks last longest. The curves are tuned on the same real trades (the first version overrated aging running backs and underrated veteran quarterbacks, and was corrected). Player pages show what the curve alone does to a player's value a year from now.

Checked against real managers

Tuned on what people actually paid.

The model is tuned against real 2026 startup drafts, 4,698 real accepted dynasty trades, 562 real redraft trades and 129 keeper-league trades. On trades it never saw, there is no lean toward the side getting more pieces, and packages of picks land within a few percent of what managers paid. The exception is 3rd-round-and-later picks thrown in to sweeten a deal: they count for less here than real managers count them. Each player also gets a small, capped adjustment for how real trades price him.

Defenders too

IDP leagues, valued the same way.

Leagues that start defensive players get them valued the same way, with tackles, sacks and the rest scored by your settings. That side is newer: it's tuned on 137 real trades and 45 startup drafts from IDP leagues, and edge rushers who can play line or linebacker are valued on the line, where they usually start.

Verdicts tied to numbers

Every word means a range.

Fair shake

within 3%

Slight edge

3–8%

Now we’re talking

8–20%

Highway robbery

20% and up

The same scale runs in reverse for the other side. When a trade helps your lineup now but costs long-term value, it says so: a win-now swing. When it costs now but pays later, it's a future play.

Odds from real games

Thousands of seasons, played out.

A team's weekly score lands about 28 points either side of its projection; that spread comes from 4,839 played 2026 matchups, where favorites shown at 70–80% won 77% of the time. Playoff odds play the rest of your league's schedule and the playoffs out thousands of times from each team's projected lineup week by week, byes included. Checked on 131 finished 2025 Sleeper leagues rebuilt as of week 8: teams shown 70–90% made the playoffs 83% of the time, and teams shown a 20%+ title chance (29% on average) won it 30% of the time. In season, a trade check also shows what the trade does to both teams' playoff odds, using the same simulated seasons before and after so the difference is the trade, not luck.

We fix, we don’t second-guess

Lineups: the points are in the holes.

The lineup check replaces starters who can't play (out, on IR, suspended, on a bye) and fills empty slots. It leaves healthy starters alone, because in a 2025 backtest on 133 Sleeper leagues, swapping them on season form scored 1.6 points a week less than the lineups managers chose: news and roles move a single week more than season form does. Fixing is where the points are: in that backtest, a third of lineups started someone who didn't play or left a slot empty, and filling those from the bench was worth about 15 points that week.

Bids from real bids

Competition sets the price, not value.

In 7,335 winning FAAB claims across 198 Sleeper leagues this season, a player's value barely predicted his price; competition did. Most players draw one bid and go for $0. So Swindlr prices a bid by how in demand the player is right now (his place on Sleeper's trending adds) and quotes a bid that would have beaten every other bid about 9 times in 10 for players that hot (checked against the losing bids too), scaled to your budget.

Basketball, baseball, hockey

The same idea, each sport’s own numbers.

Basketball (a beta) runs football's model on NBA numbers, in points or nine categories, and is checked against 3,326 real Sleeper NBA dynasty trades. Sleeper leagues play Lock-In (each starter counts one game a week, the one you lock), so their weeks and values are figured that way, and their playoff odds were checked on 168 finished Sleeper leagues replayed from the season's first week. Baseball and hockey (betas) count each category in standard deviations across the players a league rosters (or your points), above the best player left on waivers. Their dynasty seasons follow age curves fit on each league's own seasons since 2008, times the chance a veteran is still a regular a year later, measured the same way. Prospects come from MLB's and the NHL's own stats (minor leagues, junior, college, Europe), translated to the majors and weighed by the chance they become regulars, both fit on past prospects; there are no scouting grades. Baseball and hockey values haven't been checked against real trades yet.

What it doesn’t know yet

Treat every number as an estimate.

Keeper costs, long-touchdown bonuses, and who in your league is actually willing to trade.

Where the numbers come from

Public data, read-only, refreshed daily.

Every number traces to one of these. Swindlr never writes to your league, and nothing from anyone’s league is shown to anyone else.

What	Where it comes from	How fresh
Football stats, schedules and kickoff times	nflverse’s weekly player stats and schedules (open data, CC-BY 4.0)	Daily in season
Football players, teams, injuries and rookies	Sleeper’s public player list	Daily
Your leagues: rosters, settings, matchups, trades, live scores	Read-only from Sleeper, ESPN, MyFantasyLeague, Fleaflicker and Fantrax, each time you open a league	A few minutes old at most; live scores every 30 seconds
Basketball players, stats and schedule	Sleeper	Daily
Baseball players and stats	Sleeper, plus MLB’s Stats API for holds, saves, positions played, minor-league lines and birth dates	Daily in season
Hockey players and stats	Sleeper, plus the NHL’s own stats for birth dates, shutouts, prospects and drafts	Daily in season
What the model is tuned and checked on	Real accepted trades, drafts and finished seasons from public Sleeper and ESPN leagues, counted in aggregate (no league or manager is ever shown), and past seasons from nflverse, MLB and the NHL	Refit as seasons finish
Weekly projections	Swindlr’s own, from season form (no outside projections)	With each stats refresh

Glossary

Every number and abbreviation.

The same definitions show when you hover over (or tap) a dotted-underlined term anywhere on the site.

Values

Value: Value is points (or category score) above replacement, added up over the seasons that matter: the rest of this season in redraft, the next several in dynasty, each later season counting a little less and aged on the position’s curve. Replacement is the best player a team could pick up for free at that position. The scale is set so the best player in the format is 9,999 and a waiver-wire player is 0. In a league, the scale uses that league’s own scoring, lineup and size.
PAR: The draft room can rank by PAR: projected points a game above the league’s replacement level at the position, times a 17-game season. It answers “how many more points will he score than whoever I’d start instead,” for this season only (dynasty value adds future seasons).
Rank: Rank by value in this format or league.
Age: Age today, from the player’s birth date.
3 wk: How much his value moved over the last three weeks of games.
In a year: His value a year from now if only his age changes: the position’s age curve, nothing else.
Change: The difference between his value now and a year from now on the age curve alone.
Edge: How much more one side of a trade is worth, as a percent of the bigger side. Within 3% is a fair shake.
Verdict: The trade check’s call: Fair shake (within 3%), Slight edge (3–8%), Now we’re talking (8–20%), Highway robbery (20%+).
Value: How much more value you’d get than you give in this trade, as a percent of the bigger side.
Market: Swindlr’s rank for this player in this format: roughly what the trade market pays for him.
Market: A small, capped nudge from how real accepted trades price this player, so values don’t drift far from what managers actually pay.

Projections

PPG: Season-form projection: a player’s recent seasons, with the current one counting most, regressed toward a typical player at his position when he has few games, in the league’s own scoring. It’s what values are built on. It isn’t a single-week forecast: news and roles move one week more than season form does.
Projected: What Swindlr projects in this scoring (season form, not a one-week forecast).
Last: His points a game last season, in this scoring.
Rest of season: Points a player adds to your lineup over the rest of this season, over the player he’d replace.
This week: What a player adds to your lineup this week: his projection if he plays, nothing on a bye or if he’s out.
Gain: How much better your team gets: value (or points) added over the player he’d replace.
z (category score): In a categories league each category is measured in standard deviations across the players a league starts (rate stats like AVG or save percentage weighted by playing time), then added up. A z of 1.0 a game is about one standard deviation better than an average starter, summed over the categories.

Leagues and matchups

Chance to win: The chance to finish this matchup ahead, from both lineups’ projections. A full week swings about 28 points either way (measured on 4,839 real games), less as the games are played; checked on the same games at each wave of Sunday’s kickoffs.
Playoffs: Chance to make the playoffs: the rest of the schedule and the playoffs played out thousands of times from each team’s projected lineups, byes included.
Titles: Chance to win the league in those same simulated seasons.
Titles: League titles won in the seasons this league’s history covers.
Win %: Share of games won, ties counting half.
Adds: How many Sleeper teams added him in the last day (Sleeper’s trending list): where the waiver rush is.
Status: Where a team stands: Contender (strong now and later), Win-now (strong now, thinner later), Rising, In the hunt, Rebuilding or Long shot, from its starters now and its long-term value.
Starters a week: Projected points from a team’s best lineup in a normal week.
To play: Starters whose games haven’t kicked off yet (from the NFL schedule).
Projected final: Points so far plus what each starter still to play is projected for; a player in a game counts for the part of it left.
Lock at: In Sleeper basketball leagues each starter counts one game a week, the one his manager locks. “Lock at” is the score where locking beats waiting: his expected best from his remaining games, at the share of that gain real Sleeper managers take.
Starts: Of his team’s games left this matchup, how many he’d start for you with your lineup set day by day.
Bid: A FAAB bid that would have beaten every other bid about 9 times in 10 for players this in demand, scaled to your budget (from 7,335 real winning bids).

Drafts and prospects

ADP: Average draft position: where real drafters take a player (Sleeper’s or ESPN’s drafts).
Pick value: What a draft pick is worth on the value scale: the players typically taken there, discounted for how far off the draft is. In a league, next year’s picks are priced by where they’re likely to land (worst record first), the spread narrowing as the season goes.
Makes it: Chance the prospect becomes a regular, fit on real prospects at his level, age, scoring and draft slot who did or didn’t make it.
As a regular: What he projects to do as a regular, from his minor-league or junior numbers translated to the big leagues, if he makes it.
Arrives: When he’s likely to be a regular, from when real prospects like him got there.

Football

PPR: Points per reception: a point for every catch (half PPR: half a point).
Superflex: A lineup slot that can start a quarterback, which makes quarterbacks far more valuable.
IDP: Individual defensive players: leagues that start linemen, linebackers and defensive backs.
FAAB: Free-agent acquisition budget: waiver claims won by blind bids.

Basketball

G: Games played.
MIN: Minutes a game.
REB: Rebounds.
AST: Assists.
STL: Steals.
3PM: Three-pointers made.
FG%: Field-goal percentage, counted as makes above the league’s rate on his attempts.
FT%: Free-throw percentage, counted as makes above the league’s rate on his attempts.
TO: Turnovers (fewer is better).
Punt: Give up one category on purpose: values count the other eight, so players who hurt you there rise.

Baseball

R: Runs scored.
HR: Home runs.
RBI: Runs batted in.
SB: Stolen bases.
AVG: Batting average, weighted by at-bats in category leagues.
OBP: On-base percentage.
PA: Plate appearances.
IP: Innings pitched.
K: Strikeouts (a pitcher’s).
SV: Saves.
HLD: Holds.
GS: Games started (a pitcher’s).
ERA: Earned run average: earned runs per nine innings. Lower is better.
WHIP: Walks plus hits per inning pitched. Lower is better.
QS: Quality starts: 6+ innings, 3 or fewer earned runs.

Hockey

GP: Games played.
G: Goals.
A: Assists.
PTS: Points (goals plus assists in hockey; points scored in basketball).
+/-: Plus-minus: goals for minus goals against while he’s on the ice at even strength.
PIM: Penalty minutes.
PPP: Power-play points.
SOG: Shots on goal.
HIT: Hits.
BLK: Blocked shots (blocks in basketball).
FOW: Faceoffs won.
GAA: Goals-against average: goals allowed per 60 minutes in net. Lower is better.
SV%: Save percentage: saves over shots faced.
SO: Shutouts (strikeouts for hitters in baseball).
W: Wins (a goalie’s or a pitcher’s).
L: Losses (a goalie’s).
OTL: Overtime and shootout losses (a goalie’s); worth a point in some leagues.
ATOI: Average time on ice a game.

Check a trade

Data: NFL stats and schedules from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); NBA, MLB and NHL players and stats from Sleeper, with MLB's and the NHL's own stats for positions, holds, birth dates, shutouts and prospects. League data read-only from the public APIs of Sleeper, ESPN, MyFantasyLeague and Fleaflicker.