Two players, one answer.
Aaron Jones Sr. vs Tyler Warren
This week
Toss-up · 11.1 to 9.8 projected (Week 8, PPR)
Rest of season
Tyler Warren by 18% (Redraft PPR)Dynasty
Tyler Warren by 66% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 8 · PPR · 56% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Tyler Warren is projected 1.3 points ahead of Aaron Jones Sr.. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 56% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
TE · IND
Tyler Warren
11.1 projected
@ JAX · Sun 1:00 PM ETQuestionable
14 a game this season · last 3: 14.7, 9.1, 21.4
RB · MIN
Aaron Jones Sr.
9.8 projected
@ DET · Sun 1:00 PM ETQuestionable
12.3 a game this season · last 3: 16.8, 18.7, 3.6
- Tyler Warren is questionable. The projection assumes he plays; if he's ruled out, the next player up is the call.
- Aaron Jones Sr. is questionable. The projection assumes he plays; if he's ruled out, the next player up is the call.
What the call rests on
- Tyler Warren: Sleeper's projection, last changed Thu, Oct 29, 2:10 PM ET
- Aaron Jones Sr.: Sleeper's projection, last changed Thu, Oct 29, 2:10 PM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Thu, Oct 29, 2:14 PM ET.
- Injury statuses read Thu, Oct 29, 2:14 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
| Same projections, scored | Warren | Sr. |
|---|---|---|
| PPR | 11.1 | 9.8 |
| Half PPR | 8.5 | 8.7 |
| Standard | 5.9 | 7.5 |
What could change it before kickoff
- Tyler Warren's status (questionable): if he's ruled out, Aaron Jones Sr. is the start.
- Aaron Jones Sr.'s status (questionable): if he's ruled out, Tyler Warren is the start.
- A projection update of 1.3 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
- In half-PPR scoring the call goes the other way: Aaron Jones Sr. 8.7, Tyler Warren 8.5.
- In standard scoring the call goes the other way: Aaron Jones Sr. 7.5, Tyler Warren 5.9.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.