Recalculated: today's model on the games through each week, valued at today's point in the season. It shows what each week's games did to his value, not the values Swindlr showed at the time.
Swindlr records its published values weekly from Oct 28, 2026; they'll appear here as a record beside this chart.
76% of it is upside, the model's allowance for him outplaying his projection of 12.7 a game; the projection alone is worth the other 24%. That allowance comes from how widely players at his position score around their projections, set wider in a player's first three seasons and for seasons further off, and it's the least certain part of the number: a valuation that counts less of it would price him lower.
Jordan Mason took 15 of Minnesota's 29 carries in his first game back, while Aaron Jones Sr. fell from 21.3 carries a game to 8. He projects right at the illustrative starter line: a close call for Week 8.
What he's worth in a trade
Dynasty 1QB
Real trades · 144 in the last year · 26 in dynasty one-QB leagues
The last 90 days of the sample, dynasty leagues: 59 trades, 47 Superflex or 2QB and 12 one-QB, 38 with a TE premium. Every trade with him, by format →
What managers actually gave for Aaron in completed trades in public Sleeper leagues, leagues like Dynasty 1QB first. Each shows the date and the league's settings; the price is what was agreed then, and the line under it is today's value, a different thing. Two-team trades of up to four pieces a side; none is left out for disagreeing with Swindlr. No league or manager names. 9 of them look lopsided at today's values (values move after a trade, with injuries and role changes, so a fair price then can look lopsided now); none is left out.
Oct 4, 2026 · 8-team dynasty 1QBAaron Jones Sr. + Jakobi MeyersforChase Brown + RJ HarveyToday on the Dynasty 1QB board: 3,049 for his side, 6,926 for the otherCheck it at today's values, in its league's settings
Oct 1, 2026 · 16-team dynasty 1QB, TE +0.75Aaron Jones Sr. + Ladd McConkeyforDe'Zhaun Stribling + 2027 2ndToday on the Dynasty 1QB board: 3,690 for his side, 2,527 for the otherCheck it at today's values, in its league's settings
Sep 16, 2026 · 16-team dynasty 1QB, TE +0.5Aaron Jones Sr. + Terry McLaurinforAlvin Kamara + DJ MooreToday on the Dynasty 1QB board: 2,565 for his side, 2,955 for the otherCheck it at today's values, in its league's settings
Sep 2, 2026 · 10-team dynasty 1QBAaron Jones Sr. + Jayden Daniels + 2028 2ndforPatrick Mahomes + Jaylen Warren + 2027 5thToday on the Dynasty 1QB board: 5,608 for his side, 6,032 for the otherCheck it at today's values, in its league's settings
Equal value today · Swindlr's estimate
Not real trades: packages that land within a few percent of Aaron's value in Dynasty 1QB now. Open one in the calculator to see who wins it.
Values are Swindlr's estimates for 12-team leagues, updated with every week's stats (through week 8 of 2026 (in progress)). "In a year" is the same production a year older, on the age curve the model is tuned with; news, role changes and the next rookie class aren’t in it. Stats: nflverse (CC-BY 4.0).
Stats from Sleeper’s weekly stat lines, regular season, through week 8 of 2026 (in progress) (nflverse’s box scores fill a week Sleeper lacks); teams and injuries from Sleeper, Oct 30. Where the numbers come from.