Two players, one answer.
A.J. Brown vs Carnell Tate
This week
Toss-up · 13.7 to 13.3 projected (Week 8, PPR)
Rest of season
A.J. Brown by 18% (Redraft PPR)Dynasty
Carnell Tate by 32% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 8 · PPR · 52% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Carnell Tate is projected 0.4 points ahead of A.J. Brown. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 52% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
WR · TEN
Carnell Tate
13.7 projected
@ CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETQuestionable
11 a game this season · last 3: 1.6, 19, 9.9
WR · NE
A.J. Brown
13.3 projected
@ MIA · Sun 4:25 PM ETQuestionable
6.4 a game this season · last 3: 5.6, 5.7, 7.8
- Carnell Tate is questionable. The projection assumes he plays; if he's ruled out, the next player up is the call.
- A.J. Brown is questionable. The projection assumes he plays; if he's ruled out, the next player up is the call.
What the call rests on
- Carnell Tate: Sleeper's projection, last changed Fri, Oct 30, 6:20 AM ET
- A.J. Brown: Sleeper's projection, last changed Fri, Oct 30, 6:20 AM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Fri, Oct 30, 6:27 AM ET.
- Injury statuses read Fri, Oct 30, 6:27 AM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
| Same projections, scored | Tate | Brown |
|---|---|---|
| PPR | 13.7 | 13.3 |
| Half PPR | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| Standard | 8.4 | 8.9 |
What could change it before kickoff
- Carnell Tate's status (questionable): if he's ruled out, A.J. Brown is the start.
- A.J. Brown's status (questionable): if he's ruled out, Carnell Tate is the start.
- A projection update of 0.4 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
- In half-PPR scoring the call goes the other way: A.J. Brown 11.1, Carnell Tate 11.1.
- In standard scoring the call goes the other way: A.J. Brown 8.9, Carnell Tate 8.4.
- Carnell Tate plays first (Sun 1:00 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before A.J. Brown's late news is known.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.