Two players, one answer.
Aaron Jones Sr. vs Alvin Kamara
This week
Toss-up · 9.7 to 9.4 projected (Week 9, PPR)
Rest of season
About even (Redraft PPR)Dynasty
About even (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 9 · PPR · 51% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Aaron Jones Sr. is projected 0.3 points ahead of Alvin Kamara. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 51% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
RB · MIN
Aaron Jones Sr.
9.7 projected
vs BUF · Mon 8:15 PM ET
11.4 a game this season · last 3: 18.7, 3.6, 6
RB · NO
Alvin Kamara
9.4 projected
vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ET
11 a game this season · last 3: 2.6, 14.9, 13.2
What the call rests on
- Aaron Jones Sr.: Sleeper's projection, last changed Tue, Nov 3, 7:40 PM ET
- Alvin Kamara: Sleeper's projection, last changed Tue, Nov 3, 7:40 PM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Tue, Nov 3, 7:41 PM ET.
- Injury statuses read Tue, Nov 3, 7:41 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
| Same projections, scored | Sr. | Kamara |
|---|---|---|
| PPR | 9.7 | 9.4 |
| Half PPR | 8.6 | 8.1 |
| Standard | 7.5 | 6.8 |
What could change it before kickoff
- A projection update of 0.3 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
- Alvin Kamara plays first (Sun 1:00 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Aaron Jones Sr.'s late news is known.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.