Two players, one answer.

Baker Mayfield vs Bryce Young

Any league · Week 8 start/sit · PPR

Stats through week 7 of 2026

Week 8 · PPR · 57% held up in 2025

A toss-up

On Sleeper's projections, Bryce Young is projected 1.8 points ahead of Baker Mayfield. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 57% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.

QB · CAR

Bryce Young

18.1 projected

@ GB · Thu 8:15 PM ET

20 a game this season · last 3: 21.5, 19.8, 7.4

QB · TB

Baker Mayfield

16.3 projected

vs ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ET

10.9 a game this season · last 3: 13.2, 12.3, 6.7

What the call rests on

  • Bryce Young: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Oct 28, 11:30 AM ET
  • Baker Mayfield: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Oct 28, 11:30 AM ET
  • Sleeper's projections read Wed, Oct 28, 11:31 AM ET.
  • Injury statuses read Wed, Oct 28, 11:31 AM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.

What could change it before kickoff

  • A projection update of 1.8 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
  • Bryce Young plays first (Thu 8:15 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Baker Mayfield's late news is known.

Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)

This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.