Two players, one answer.
Baker Mayfield vs C.J. Stroud
This week
Toss-up · 16.2 to 16.2 projected (Week 9, Standard)
Rest of season
C.J. Stroud by 43% (Redraft standard)Dynasty
C.J. Stroud by 28% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 9 · Standard · 50% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, C.J. Stroud and Baker Mayfield are projected level. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
QB · HOU
C.J. Stroud
16.2 projected
@ LAC · Sun 4:05 PM ET
18.5 a game this season · last 3: 20.9, 24, 16.5
QB · TB
Baker Mayfield
16.2 projected
@ CHI · Sun 8:20 PM ET
9 a game this season · last 3: 12.3, 6.7, 1.4
What the call rests on
- C.J. Stroud: Sleeper's projection, last changed Tue, Nov 3, 9:40 PM ET
- Baker Mayfield: Sleeper's projection, last changed Tue, Nov 3, 9:40 PM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Tue, Nov 3, 9:42 PM ET.
- Injury statuses read Tue, Nov 3, 9:42 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
What could change it before kickoff
- A projection update of 0 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
- C.J. Stroud plays first (Sun 4:05 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Baker Mayfield's late news is known.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with Standard settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.