Two players, one answer.

Baker Mayfield vs Geno Smith

Any format · Week 8 start/sit · PPR

Stats through week 7 of 2026

Week 8 · PPR · 52% held up in 2025

A toss-up

On Sleeper's projections, Baker Mayfield is projected 0.5 points ahead of Geno Smith. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 52% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.

QB · TB

Baker Mayfield

16.3 projected

vs ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ET

10.9 a game this season · last 3: 13.2, 12.3, 6.7

QB · NYJ

Geno Smith

15.8 projected

vs LV · Sun 1:00 PM ET

15.3 a game this season · last 3: 10, 13, 24.5

What the call rests on

  • Baker Mayfield: Sleeper's projection, last changed Tue, Oct 27, 12:50 PM ET
  • Geno Smith: Sleeper's projection, last changed Tue, Oct 27, 12:50 PM ET
  • Sleeper's projections read Tue, Oct 27, 1:09 PM ET.
  • Injury statuses: Sleeper's player list, read Tue, Oct 27, 9:01 AM ET (once a day). Game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, come after it.

What could change it before kickoff

  • A projection update of 0.5 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.

Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)

This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.