Two players, one answer.

Bo Nix vs Michael Penix Jr.

Any format · Week 8 start/sit · PPR

Stats through week 7 of 2026

Week 8 · PPR · 55% held up in 2025

A toss-up

On Sleeper's projections, Michael Penix Jr. is projected 1.1 points ahead of Bo Nix. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 55% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.

QB · ATL

Michael Penix Jr.

15.1 projected

@ TB · Sun 1:00 PM ET

17.1 a game this season · last 3: 14.4, 23.1, 20.4

QB · DEN

Bo Nix

14.0 projected

vs KC · Sun 4:25 PM ET

14.1 a game this season · last 3: 7.9, 4.5, 26.3

What the call rests on

  • Michael Penix Jr.: Sleeper's projection, last changed Tue, Oct 27, 2:00 PM ET
  • Bo Nix: Sleeper's projection, last changed Tue, Oct 27, 2:00 PM ET
  • Sleeper's projections read Tue, Oct 27, 2:06 PM ET.
  • Injury statuses: Sleeper's player list, read Tue, Oct 27, 9:01 AM ET (once a day). Game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, come after it.

What could change it before kickoff

  • A projection update of 1.1 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
  • Michael Penix Jr. plays first (Sun 1:00 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Bo Nix's late news is known.

Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)

This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.