Two players, one answer.
Brandon Smith vs Drew Lock
This week
No call this week: one of them has no game or a projection under 4 points
Rest of season
Brandon Smith by 33% (redraft PPR)Dynasty
Drew Lock by 40% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 8 · PPR · 52% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Brandon Smith is projected 0.5 points ahead of Drew Lock. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 52% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
WR · PIT
Brandon Smith
0.5 projected
vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ET
4.4 a game this season · last 1: 4.4
QB · SEA
Drew Lock
0.0 projected
vs CHI · Mon 8:15 PM ETQuestionable
17.1 a game this season · last 2: 12.8, 21.4
- Drew Lock is questionable. The projection assumes he plays; if he's ruled out, the next player up is the call.
What the call rests on
- Brandon Smith: Sleeper's projection, last changed Thu, Oct 29, 2:50 AM ET
- Drew Lock: Sleeper's projection
- Sleeper's projections read Thu, Oct 29, 2:55 AM ET.
- Injury statuses read Thu, Oct 29, 2:55 AM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
| Same projections, scored | Smith | Lock |
|---|---|---|
| PPR | 0.5 | 0 |
| Half PPR | 0.4 | 0 |
| Standard | 0.3 | 0 |
What could change it before kickoff
- Drew Lock's status (questionable): if he's ruled out, Brandon Smith is the start.
- A projection update of 0.5 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
- Brandon Smith plays first (Sun 1:00 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Drew Lock's late news is known.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.