Two players, one answer.
C.J. Stroud vs Drew Lock
This week
Toss-up · 17.8 to 17.7 projected (Week 9, Standard)
Rest of season
C.J. Stroud by 15% (Redraft standard)Dynasty
C.J. Stroud by 63% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 9 · Standard · 50% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, C.J. Stroud is projected 0.1 points ahead of Drew Lock. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 50% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
QB · HOU
C.J. Stroud
17.8 projected
@ LAC · Sun 4:05 PM ET
18.5 a game this season · last 3: 20.9, 24, 16.5
QB · SEA
Drew Lock
17.7 projected
vs ARI · Sun 4:25 PM ETQuestionable
17.1 a game this season · last 2: 12.8, 21.4
- Drew Lock is questionable. The projection assumes he plays; if he's ruled out, the next player up is the call.
What the call rests on
- C.J. Stroud: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Nov 4, 5:50 PM ET
- Drew Lock: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Nov 4, 5:50 PM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Wed, Nov 4, 5:58 PM ET.
- Injury statuses read Wed, Nov 4, 5:58 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
What could change it before kickoff
- Drew Lock's status (questionable): if he's ruled out, C.J. Stroud is the start.
- A projection update of 0.1 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with Standard settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.