Two players, one answer.

Caleb Williams vs Sam Darnold

Any league · Week 8 start/sit · Half PPR

Stats through week 8 of 2026 (in progress)

Caleb Williams · Sam Darnold

Week 8 · Half PPR · 52% held up in 2025

A toss-up

On Sleeper's projections, Sam Darnold is projected 0.6 points ahead of Caleb Williams. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 52% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.

QB · SEA

Sam Darnold

16.3 projected

vs CHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET

13.8 a game this season · last 3: 10.3, 13, 15

QB · CHI

Caleb Williams

15.7 projected

@ SEA · Mon 8:15 PM ET

21.2 a game this season · last 3: 8.7, 16.5, 22.1

What the call rests on

  • Sam Darnold: Sleeper's projection, last changed Sun, Nov 1, 5:30 PM ET
  • Caleb Williams: Sleeper's projection, last changed Sun, Nov 1, 5:30 PM ET
  • Sleeper's projections read Sun, Nov 1, 5:35 PM ET.
  • Injury statuses read Sun, Nov 1, 5:35 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.

What could change it before kickoff

  • A projection update of 0.6 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.

Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)

This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with Half PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.