Two players, one answer.
Derrick Henry vs Garrett Wilson
This week
Toss-up · 16.6 to 15.8 projected (Week 8, PPR)
Rest of season
Derrick Henry by 41% (Redraft PPR)Dynasty
Garrett Wilson by 56% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 8 · PPR · 54% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Garrett Wilson is projected 0.8 points ahead of Derrick Henry. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 54% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
WR · NYJ
Garrett Wilson
16.6 projected
vs LV · Sun 1:00 PM ET
14.2 a game this season · last 3: 23.4, 8.4, 4.6
RB · BAL
Derrick Henry
15.8 projected
@ BUF · Sun 1:00 PM ET
17.5 a game this season · last 3: 21, 5, 5.9
- Derrick Henry has scored 10.6 a game over his last three, below his 17.5 season average.
What the call rests on
- Garrett Wilson: Sleeper's projection, last changed Thu, Oct 29, 11:50 PM ET
- Derrick Henry: Sleeper's projection, last changed Thu, Oct 29, 11:50 PM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Thu, Oct 29, 11:55 PM ET.
- Injury statuses read Thu, Oct 29, 11:55 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
| Same projections, scored | Wilson | Henry |
|---|---|---|
| PPR | 16.6 | 15.8 |
| Half PPR | 13.8 | 15.1 |
| Standard | 11 | 14.5 |
What could change it before kickoff
- A projection update of 0.8 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
- In half-PPR scoring the call goes the other way: Derrick Henry 15.1, Garrett Wilson 13.8.
- In standard scoring the call goes the other way: Derrick Henry 14.5, Garrett Wilson 11.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.