Two players, one answer.
Derrick Henry vs Geno Smith
This week
Toss-up · 17 to 15.8 projected (Week 8, PPR)
Rest of season
Derrick Henry by 86% (Redraft PPR)Dynasty
About even (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 8 · PPR · 55% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Geno Smith is projected 1.2 points ahead of Derrick Henry. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 55% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
QB · NYJ
Geno Smith
17.0 projected
vs LV · Sun 1:00 PM ET
15.3 a game this season · last 3: 10, 13, 24.5
RB · BAL
Derrick Henry
15.8 projected
@ BUF · Sun 1:00 PM ET
17.5 a game this season · last 3: 21, 5, 5.9
- Derrick Henry has scored 10.6 a game over his last three, below his 17.5 season average.
What the call rests on
- Geno Smith: Sleeper's projection, last changed Fri, Oct 30, 2:30 AM ET
- Derrick Henry: Sleeper's projection, last changed Fri, Oct 30, 2:30 AM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Fri, Oct 30, 2:36 AM ET.
- Injury statuses read Fri, Oct 30, 2:36 AM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
| Same projections, scored | Smith | Henry |
|---|---|---|
| PPR | 17 | 15.8 |
| Half PPR | 17 | 15.1 |
| Standard | 17 | 14.5 |
What could change it before kickoff
- A projection update of 1.2 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.