Two players, one answer.

Drake Maye vs Joe Burrow

Any league · Week 8 start/sit · Standard

Stats through week 8 of 2026 (in progress)

Drake Maye · Joe Burrow

Week 8 · Standard · 52% held up in 2025

A toss-up

On Sleeper's projections, Joe Burrow is projected 0.4 points ahead of Drake Maye. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 52% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.

QB · CIN

Joe Burrow

21.9 projected

vs TEN · Sun 1:00 PM ET

22.2 a game this season · last 3: 25.7, 24.6, 28.9

QB · NE

Drake Maye

21.5 projected

@ MIA · Sun 4:25 PM ET

20.9 a game this season · last 3: 39.5, 23.8, 28.4

What the call rests on

  • Joe Burrow: Sleeper's projection, last changed Sat, Oct 31, 3:20 AM ET
  • Drake Maye: Sleeper's projection, last changed Sat, Oct 31, 3:20 AM ET
  • Sleeper's projections read Sat, Oct 31, 3:24 AM ET.
  • Injury statuses read Sat, Oct 31, 3:24 AM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.

What could change it before kickoff

  • A projection update of 0.4 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
  • Joe Burrow plays first (Sun 1:00 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Drake Maye's late news is known.

Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)

This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with Standard settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.