Two players, one answer.
Drew Lock vs Malik Willis
This week
Toss-up · 17.8 to 17.6 projected (Week 9, PPR)
Rest of season
Malik Willis by 77% (Redraft PPR)Dynasty
Malik Willis by 47% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 9 · PPR · 51% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Malik Willis is projected 0.2 points ahead of Drew Lock. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 51% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
QB · MIA
Malik Willis
17.8 projected
vs DET · Sun 1:00 PM ET
15.2 a game this season · last 3: 20.9, 26, 15.6
QB · SEA
Drew Lock
17.6 projected
vs ARI · Sun 4:25 PM ETQuestionable
17.1 a game this season · last 2: 12.8, 21.4
- Malik Willis has scored 20.8 a game over his last three, above his 15.2 season average.
- Drew Lock is questionable. The projection assumes he plays; if he's ruled out, the next player up is the call.
What the call rests on
- Malik Willis: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Nov 4, 3:50 PM ET
- Drew Lock: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Nov 4, 3:50 PM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Wed, Nov 4, 3:54 PM ET.
- Injury statuses read Wed, Nov 4, 3:54 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
What could change it before kickoff
- Drew Lock's status (questionable): if he's ruled out, Malik Willis is the start.
- A projection update of 0.2 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
- Malik Willis plays first (Sun 1:00 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Drew Lock's late news is known.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.