Two players, one answer.

Geno Smith vs Kyler Murray

Any league · Week 8 start/sit · Standard

Stats through week 8 of 2026 (in progress)

Geno Smith · Kyler Murray

Week 8 · Standard · 50% held up in 2025

A toss-up

On Sleeper's projections, Kyler Murray is projected 0.1 points ahead of Geno Smith. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 50% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.

QB · MIN

Kyler Murray

17.3 projected

@ DET · Sun 1:00 PM ET

11.1 a game this season · last 3: 11.5, 18.3, 13.9

QB · NYJ

Geno Smith

17.2 projected

vs LV · Sun 1:00 PM ET

15.3 a game this season · last 3: 10, 13, 24.5

What the call rests on

  • Kyler Murray: Sleeper's projection, last changed Fri, Oct 30, 4:50 PM ET
  • Geno Smith: Sleeper's projection, last changed Fri, Oct 30, 4:50 PM ET
  • Sleeper's projections read Fri, Oct 30, 5:01 PM ET.
  • Injury statuses read Fri, Oct 30, 5:01 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.

What could change it before kickoff

  • A projection update of 0.1 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.

Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)

This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with Standard settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.