Two players, one answer.

Geno Smith vs Michael Penix Jr.

Dynasty Superflex · 12 teams

Stats through week 6 of 2026

Week 7 · PPR · 53% held up in 2025

A toss-up

On Sleeper's projections, Geno Smith is projected 0.8 points ahead of Michael Penix Jr.. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 53% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: start the one you trust more, or the one with news on his side.

QB · NYJ

Geno Smith

16.1 projected

vs MIA · Sun 1:00 PM ET

15.3 a game this season · last 3: 10, 13, 24.5

QB · ATL

Michael Penix Jr.

15.3 projected

vs SF · Sun 1:00 PM ET

17.1 a game this season · last 3: 14.4, 23.1, 20.4

Their games have already kicked off, so most platforms have locked them in or out for this week.

Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)

This week’s projections are Sleeper’s. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season.