Two players, one answer.
Geno Smith vs Patrick Mahomes
Any league · Week 8 start/sit · PPR
Stats through week 7 of 2026
This week
Toss-up · 16.8 to 16.8 projected (Week 8, PPR)
Rest of season
Patrick Mahomes by 69% (redraft PPR)Dynasty
Patrick Mahomes by 62% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 8 · PPR · 50% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith are projected level. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
QB · KC
Patrick Mahomes
16.8 projected
@ DEN · Sun 4:25 PM ET
17.3 a game this season · last 3: 17, 11.5, 7
QB · NYJ
Geno Smith
16.8 projected
vs LV · Sun 1:00 PM ET
15.3 a game this season · last 3: 10, 13, 24.5
- Patrick Mahomes has scored 11.8 a game over his last three, below his 17.3 season average.
What the call rests on
- Patrick Mahomes: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Oct 28, 1:20 AM ET
- Geno Smith: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Oct 28, 1:20 AM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Wed, Oct 28, 1:24 AM ET.
- Injury statuses read Wed, Oct 28, 1:24 AM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
What could change it before kickoff
- A projection update of 0 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
- Geno Smith plays first (Sun 1:00 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Patrick Mahomes's late news is known.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.