Two players, one answer.
George Pickens vs Luther Burden III
This week
Toss-up · 14.6 to 13.5 projected (Week 9, PPR)
Rest of season
George Pickens by 26% (Redraft PPR)Dynasty
About even (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 9 · PPR · 55% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Luther Burden III is projected 1.1 points ahead of George Pickens. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 55% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
WR · CHI
Luther Burden III
14.6 projected
vs TB · Sun 8:20 PM ET
14.5 a game this season · last 3: 17.5, 23.7, 18.6
WR · DAL
George Pickens
13.5 projected
@ IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET
13 a game this season · last 3: 13.3, 15.7, 6.8
- Luther Burden III has scored 19.9 a game over his last three, above his 14.5 season average.
What the call rests on
- Luther Burden III: Sleeper's projection, last changed Tue, Nov 3, 7:40 PM ET
- George Pickens: Sleeper's projection, last changed Tue, Nov 3, 7:40 PM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Tue, Nov 3, 7:41 PM ET.
- Injury statuses read Tue, Nov 3, 7:41 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
| Same projections, scored | III | Pickens |
|---|---|---|
| PPR | 14.6 | 13.5 |
| Half PPR | 12 | 11.3 |
| Standard | 9.5 | 9 |
What could change it before kickoff
- A projection update of 1.1 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
- George Pickens plays first (Sun 1:00 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Luther Burden III's late news is known.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.