Two players, one answer.
Joe Burrow vs Lamar Jackson
This week
Toss-up · 21.4 to 20.4 projected (Week 8, PPR)
Rest of season
Joe Burrow by 19% (Redraft PPR)Dynasty
Joe Burrow by 6% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 8 · PPR · 54% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Joe Burrow is projected 1 point ahead of Lamar Jackson. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 54% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
QB · CIN
Joe Burrow
21.4 projected
vs TEN · Sun 1:00 PM ET
22.2 a game this season · last 3: 25.7, 24.6, 28.9
QB · BAL
Lamar Jackson
20.4 projected
@ BUF · Sun 1:00 PM ETQuestionable
20 a game this season · last 3: 15.8, 20.4, 18.9
- Lamar Jackson is questionable. The projection assumes he plays; if he's ruled out, the next player up is the call.
What the call rests on
- Joe Burrow: Sleeper's projection, last changed Thu, Oct 29, 1:10 PM ET
- Lamar Jackson: Sleeper's projection, last changed Thu, Oct 29, 1:10 PM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Thu, Oct 29, 1:11 PM ET.
- Injury statuses read Thu, Oct 29, 1:11 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
What could change it before kickoff
- Lamar Jackson's status (questionable): if he's ruled out, Joe Burrow is the start.
- A projection update of 1 point or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.