Two players, one answer.
Kyler Murray vs Patrick Mahomes
Any league · Week 8 start/sit · Standard
Stats through week 8 of 2026 (in progress)
This week
Toss-up · 18 to 17.1 projected (Week 8, Standard)
Rest of season
Patrick Mahomes by 69% (Redraft standard)Dynasty
Patrick Mahomes by 46% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 8 · Standard · 54% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Patrick Mahomes is projected 0.9 points ahead of Kyler Murray. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 54% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
QB · KC
Patrick Mahomes
18.0 projected
@ DEN · Sun 4:25 PM ET
17.3 a game this season · last 3: 17, 11.5, 7
QB · MIN
Kyler Murray
17.1 projected
@ DET · Sun 1:00 PM ET
11.1 a game this season · last 3: 11.5, 18.3, 13.9
- Kyler Murray's game has already kicked off, so most platforms have locked him in or out for this week.
- Patrick Mahomes has scored 11.8 a game over his last three, below his 17.3 season average.
What the call rests on
- Patrick Mahomes: Sleeper's projection, last changed Sun, Nov 1, 2:30 PM ET
- Kyler Murray: Sleeper's projection, last changed Sun, Nov 1, 2:30 PM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Sun, Nov 1, 2:34 PM ET.
- Injury statuses read Sun, Nov 1, 2:34 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
What could change it before kickoff
- A projection update of 0.9 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
- Kyler Murray plays first (Sun 1:00 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Patrick Mahomes's late news is known.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with Standard settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.