Two players, one answer.

Kyler Murray vs Patrick Mahomes

Any league · Week 8 start/sit · Half PPR

Stats through week 8 of 2026 (in progress)

Kyler Murray · Patrick Mahomes

Week 8 · Half PPR · 50% held up in 2025

A toss-up

On Sleeper's projections, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray are projected level. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.

QB · KC

Patrick Mahomes

17.1 projected

@ DEN · Sun 4:25 PM ET

17.3 a game this season · last 3: 17, 11.5, 7

QB · MIN

Kyler Murray

17.1 projected

@ DET · Sun 1:00 PM ET

11.1 a game this season · last 3: 11.5, 18.3, 13.9

What the call rests on

  • Patrick Mahomes: Sleeper's projection, last changed Sun, Nov 1, 11:30 AM ET
  • Kyler Murray: Sleeper's projection, last changed Sun, Nov 1, 11:30 AM ET
  • Sleeper's projections read Sun, Nov 1, 11:33 AM ET.
  • Injury statuses read Sun, Nov 1, 11:33 AM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.

What could change it before kickoff

  • A projection update of 0 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
  • Kyler Murray plays first (Sun 1:00 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Patrick Mahomes's late news is known.

Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)

This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with Half PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.