Two players, one answer.
Mike Evans vs Nico Collins
This week
Toss-up · 17.8 to 16.5 projected (Week 9, PPR)
Rest of season
Nico Collins by 38% (Redraft PPR)Dynasty
Nico Collins by 67% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 9 · PPR · 56% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Nico Collins is projected 1.3 points ahead of Mike Evans. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 56% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
WR · HOU
Nico Collins
17.8 projected
@ LAC · Sun 4:05 PM ET
15.2 a game this season · last 3: 10.6, 10.9, 2.6
WR · SF
Mike Evans
16.5 projected
vs LV · Sun 4:05 PM ETQuestionable
14.8 a game this season · last 3: 12.6, 26.3, 12.4
- Nico Collins has scored 8 a game over his last three, below his 15.2 season average.
- Mike Evans is questionable. The projection assumes he plays; if he's ruled out, the next player up is the call.
What the call rests on
- Nico Collins: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Nov 4, 4:50 PM ET
- Mike Evans: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Nov 4, 4:50 PM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Wed, Nov 4, 4:54 PM ET.
- Injury statuses read Wed, Nov 4, 4:54 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
| Same projections, scored | Collins | Evans |
|---|---|---|
| PPR | 17.8 | 16.5 |
| Half PPR | 15.1 | 14.3 |
| Standard | 12.4 | 12 |
What could change it before kickoff
- Mike Evans's status (questionable): if he's ruled out, Nico Collins is the start.
- A projection update of 1.3 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.