Two players, one answer.
Mike Evans vs Nico Collins
This week
Toss-up · 15.1 to 14.3 projected (Week 9, Half PPR)
Rest of season
Nico Collins by 36% (Redraft half PPR)Dynasty
Nico Collins by 67% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 9 · Half PPR · 54% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Nico Collins is projected 0.8 points ahead of Mike Evans. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 54% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
WR · HOU
Nico Collins
15.1 projected
@ LAC · Sun 4:05 PM ET
12.8 a game this season · last 3: 8.1, 9.4, 1.6
WR · SF
Mike Evans
14.3 projected
vs LV · Sun 4:05 PM ETQuestionable
12.6 a game this season · last 3: 10.1, 22.8, 10.9
- Nico Collins has scored 6.4 a game over his last three, below his 12.8 season average.
- Mike Evans is questionable. The projection assumes he plays; if he's ruled out, the next player up is the call.
What the call rests on
- Nico Collins: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Nov 4, 3:50 PM ET
- Mike Evans: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Nov 4, 3:50 PM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Wed, Nov 4, 3:54 PM ET.
- Injury statuses read Wed, Nov 4, 3:54 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
| Same projections, scored | Collins | Evans |
|---|---|---|
| PPR | 17.8 | 16.5 |
| Half PPR | 15.1 | 14.3 |
| Standard | 12.4 | 12 |
What could change it before kickoff
- Mike Evans's status (questionable): if he's ruled out, Nico Collins is the start.
- A projection update of 0.8 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with Half PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.