Two players, one answer.
Patrick Mahomes vs Tony Pollard
This week
Start Patrick Mahomes · 16.8 to 12.1 projected (Week 8, PPR)
Rest of season
About even (Redraft PPR)Dynasty
Patrick Mahomes by 63% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 8 · PPR · 69% held up in 2025
Lean Patrick Mahomes
On Sleeper's projections, Patrick Mahomes is projected 4.7 points ahead of Tony Pollard. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 69% of the time. A lean, not a lock.
QB · KC
Patrick Mahomes
16.8 projected
@ DEN · Sun 4:25 PM ET
17.3 a game this season · last 3: 17, 11.5, 7
RB · TEN
Tony Pollard
12.1 projected
@ CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ET
12.5 a game this season · last 3: 5.2, 7.6, 36.5
- Patrick Mahomes has scored 11.8 a game over his last three, below his 17.3 season average.
What the call rests on
- Patrick Mahomes: Sleeper's projection, last changed Fri, Oct 30, 1:30 AM ET
- Tony Pollard: Sleeper's projection, last changed Fri, Oct 30, 1:30 AM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Fri, Oct 30, 1:34 AM ET.
- Injury statuses read Fri, Oct 30, 1:34 AM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
| Same projections, scored | Mahomes | Pollard |
|---|---|---|
| PPR | 16.8 | 12.1 |
| Half PPR | 16.8 | 11.2 |
| Standard | 16.8 | 10.4 |
What could change it before kickoff
- Tony Pollard plays first (Sun 1:00 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Patrick Mahomes's late news is known.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.