Two players, one answer.
Drake Maye vs Patrick Mahomes
This week
Toss-up · 21.3 to 21.3 projected (Week 9, Standard)
Rest of season
Drake Maye by 15% (Redraft standard)Dynasty
Drake Maye by 22% (Dynasty Superflex)
Week 9 · Standard · 50% held up in 2025
A toss-up
On Sleeper's projections, Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes are projected level. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.
QB · NE
Drake Maye
21.3 projected
vs GB · Sun 4:25 PM ET
21.1 a game this season · last 3: 23.8, 28.4, 22.5
QB · KC
Patrick Mahomes
21.3 projected
vs NYJ · Sun 1:00 PM ET
18.5 a game this season · last 3: 11.5, 7, 25.4
What the call rests on
- Drake Maye: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Nov 4, 4:50 PM ET
- Patrick Mahomes: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Nov 4, 4:50 PM ET
- Sleeper's projections read Wed, Nov 4, 4:54 PM ET.
- Injury statuses read Wed, Nov 4, 4:54 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.
What could change it before kickoff
- A projection update of 0 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
- Patrick Mahomes plays first (Sun 1:00 PM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Drake Maye's late news is known.
Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)
This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with Standard settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.