Two players, one answer.

Joe Burrow vs Patrick Mahomes

Any league · Week 9 start/sit · Half PPR

Stats through week 8 of 2026

Joe Burrow · Patrick Mahomes

Week 9 · Half PPR · 50% held up in 2025

A toss-up

On Sleeper's projections, Joe Burrow is projected 0.1 points ahead of Patrick Mahomes. In the 2025 season, a player projected that far ahead outscored the other 50% of the time. That's close to a coin flip: on these projections neither is the better start, and an injury report or a projection update before kickoff can tip it.

QB · CIN

Joe Burrow

21.4 projected

@ ATL · Sun 9:30 AM ET

25.1 a game this season · last 3: 24.6, 28.9, 42.5

QB · KC

Patrick Mahomes

21.3 projected

vs NYJ · Sun 1:00 PM ET

18.5 a game this season · last 3: 11.5, 7, 25.4

What the call rests on

  • Joe Burrow: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Nov 4, 1:40 PM ET
  • Patrick Mahomes: Sleeper's projection, last changed Wed, Nov 4, 1:40 PM ET
  • Sleeper's projections read Wed, Nov 4, 1:51 PM ET.
  • Injury statuses read Wed, Nov 4, 1:51 PM ET, with the projections (hourly). A fresh projection time doesn't mean every status is: game-day inactives, about 90 minutes before kickoff, can come after it.

What could change it before kickoff

  • A projection update of 0.1 points or more in the other direction flips the call; Sleeper keeps adjusting its projections until kickoff, and this page reads them again at most an hour after it last did.
  • Joe Burrow plays first (Sun 9:30 AM ET); once his game starts most platforms lock him in or out, before Patrick Mahomes's late news is known.

Open in Who should I start (your league, more players)

This week’s projections are Sleeper’s, scored with Half PPR settings. The percentage is how often a projected gap like this held up across the 2025 season; checked against 2026 games (not used to fit it), the stated chances so far run a few points high, so read a 60% call as nearer 55%.